Management System, Resource Constraints, and Composite Disease Burden in Dromedary Camels in El Oued, Algeria: An...

Background: Dromedary camel husbandry in Algeria is shifting toward sedentary confinement, yet the consequences for herd health and reproductive outcomes remain poorly documented. This study examined the associations of housing system, environmental constraints, and disease burden with dystocia in El Oued, Algeria. Methods: A 12-month observational study of 55 farms (45 extensive, 10 semi-intensive) and 70 focal adult females integrated surveys, clinical assessments, and retrospective records. Herd Total Disease Burden (TDB; 0-24 scale) was modeled using negative-binomial regression (n = 55). Exponentiated coefficients were interpreted as ratios of expected TDB scores. Results: Feed, water, and health constraints were strongly correlated (Spearman's ρ = 0.89-0.96). Semi-intensive management yielded higher expected TDB scores than extensive management (ratio = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.28-2.29, p < 0.001), as did feed (ratio = 1.15, p = 0.015) and water deficits (ratio = 1.10, p = 0.048). Confined herds reported greater forage-species richness and higher female body weights; however, current individual clinical morbidity positively correlated with historical dystocia rates. An exploratory Random Forest ranked herd size and TDB as top farm-level dystocia predictors, though its out-of-bag error (25.5%) exceeded the 16.4% error of the majority-class baseline. Conclusions: Semi-intensive management and resource constraints are associated with higher composite disease-burden scores. Forage-species richness and increased body weight alone should not be interpreted as indicators of better health. The exploratory classifier underscores the need for larger studies to validate predictive reproductive models.