Does Wind Disrupt Overwintering Monarch Butterfly Clusters? An Observational Study of Western Monarchs

Wind protection is a central focus of western monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) overwintering habitat conservation. The Wind Disruption Hypothesis guiding management decisions predicts that winds at or above 2 m/s disrupt clusters and that cluster abundance decreases as wind speed increases. At two California groves during the 2023-2024 overwintering season, we paired time-lapse estimates of visible cluster size with nearby measurements of maximum wind gust. Stronger gusts were not consistently followed by decreases over 30-min or next-day response windows. In the 30-min analysis, the wind association depended on approximate local temperature and whether visible butterflies were in direct sunlight. Stronger gusts were associated with declines under cool, sunny conditions and increases under warm, sunny conditions. No clear wind association was detected when no visible butterflies were in direct sunlight. The next-day analysis likewise indicated that the wind association varied with sun exposure. Nearby maximum gusts did not measure sustained exposure at butterfly positions, so this was not an exact test of the historical threshold. The results did not support the predicted consistent decline with increasing wind under the monitored conditions. Physiological responses to interacting wind, ambient temperature, and solar exposure offer a plausible hypothesis for future research.