Identification and zoning control of basin ecological security pattern conflicts: A major function-oriented zoning perspective

Basins accommodate urban development, agricultural production, and ecological conservation, while ecological security patterns face dual pressures from built-up land expansion and cropland encroachment, threatening ecosystem stability. Existing studies have largely identified ecological security pattern conflicts from a whole-region perspective and developed uniform optimization strategies, making it difficult to reveal differences in conflict evolution under varying development orientations, while giving insufficient attention to the suitability of development strategies for different functional zones. Using the Dianchi Lake Basin as a case study, we examined the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological security pattern conflicts within a major function-oriented zoning framework. We simulated territorial spatial patterns for 2035 under five scenarios and evaluated preferred development pathways for different functional zones. The results revealed overall deterioration of the ecological security pattern, with ecological sources and core corridors becoming increasingly concentrated in the key ecological function area. Although total conflict area declined after 2010, fixed-basis analysis indicated that much of this reduction reflected contraction or reconfiguration of the ecological basis rather than a corresponding decrease in human land use pressure. Under the fixed 2023 ecological baseline, the food security scenario was preferred for the urban development area, while coordinated development was conditionally preferred for the major agricultural production area despite increased cropland-related conflict. The ecological security scenario yielded the lowest total conflict exposure in the key ecological function area. This study proposes differentiated conflict mitigation pathways tailored to the functional priorities of major function-oriented zones, supporting targeted territorial spatial governance in basins and other functionally heterogeneous regions.