Effectiveness of model-based decision tools for disease control in wheat, potato and grapevine: a multilevel meta-analysis

A multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to provide further evidence on the benefits of decision tools (DTs) in crop protection for grapevines, potato, and wheat. Published data on disease severity, the Treatment Frequency Index (TFI; an index combining the number and dose of fungicide sprays), and crop yield (for potato and wheat only) in standard farmer- (ST) and DT-based fungicide scheduling, compared with untreated controls (UTC), were collected through a systematic literature review. Experience-based (EX) interventions were also included for grapevines, with treatments scheduled according to monitoring or crop phenology. The data set (516 comparisons) comprised substantial among-study variability in disease severity.

In grapevine, DT and ST showed similar disease control, with >75% efficacy compared with UTC; DT significantly reduced TFI by 40% in both organic and integrated pest management systems compared with ST. Despite reduced TFI, EX provided significantly lower disease control than both ST and DT. In potato, ST showed significantly lower disease severity than DT (9.2% and 10.2% severity, respectively), corresponding to 52.4% and 45.8% efficacy. DT reduced TFI by 31% compared with ST, while maintaining a similar yield. In wheat, ST provided a slightly lower but significant disease severity than DT (18.0% and 19.8%, respectively), corresponding to 64.2% and 51.8% efficacy, respectively, compared with UTC. DT reduced TFI by 42% and yield by 3%.

Our results showed that DTs can contribute to reducing fungicide dependence, although their performance can vary among crops. Farmers should be supported in the appropriate use of DTs to achieve more sustainable crop protection. © 2026 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.