Correlations between Surface Temperature and Atmospheric CO₂ Emissions with Health-Related Factors in WANA: An Ecological Study

Climate change impacts public health. This study aims to examine climate change-related diseases in the West Asia and North Africa (WANA) region, comparing health outcomes with global data.

This study employed a secondary data analysis with an ecological design, focusing on climate change-related diseases and their associated health outcomes in 21 countries across WANA from 1990 to 2023. Data were sourced from reputable organizations and cleaned for inconsistencies. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the data, while correlation and regression analyses assessed the relationships between climate variables and health outcomes, utilizing SPSS version 22 for statistical analysis.

The WANA region-which accounts for about 10% of the world's population-continues to warm with higher atmospheric CO2, impacting health outcomes. The annual heat-related mortality rate averages 1.95 per 100,000, indicating a slight decrease. Mental health indicators show a -1.17% change, while anxiety has surged by 21.70%. Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) have declined by 23.6%, suggesting a reduced overall disease burden in this region. Temperature is the main driver of heat-mortality risk: a 1°C increase raises heat-mortality odds by 57%. A 1% rise in CO₂ increases asthma odds by 3%, a statistically significant, public-health-relevant effect. The region differs notably from the global average and from countries with minimal climate impact.

The study advocates a strategy addressing climate-related mental health impacts through environmental policy, public health, and mental-health support, with recommendations to improve data collection, target vulnerable groups, develop heat action plans, and foster regional partnerships.