Burden of Epilepsy in China from 1990 to 2023: A Trend Analysis and Prediction Study Based on Data from the GBD 2023 Database

Objective This study aims to investigate the burden of epilepsy in China through trend analysis and predictive research utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 database, with the goal of comprehensively understanding the current dynamics and trends of epilepsy. Methods Data on epilepsy in China were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 database. Four indicators-incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality-were extracted, and stratified analyses were conducted according to year, age, and sex. Join-point regression analysis was employed to identify turning points in disease burden changes. Decomposition analysis was used to deeply dissect the underlying influencing factors of disease burden. Finally, based on the Bayesian age-period-cohort model, the burden of epilepsy is projected from 2024 to 2035. Results From the perspectives of age and sex, the burden of epilepsy was more severe in children and the elderly, and the disease burden level was higher in males than in females. Decomposition analysis revealed that epidemiological changes were the dominant driver of ASDR and ASMR, whereas population growth was the primary driver of age-standardized incidence and age-standardized prevalence. The AAPC curves for age-standardized DALYs and age-standardized mortality rate showed downward trends. The AAPC curve for age-standardized incidence rate generally exhibited an upward trend, peaking in 2010 and subsequently declining steadily; in contrast, the AAPC curve for age-standardized prevalence rate fluctuated considerably. The BAPC projection indicated that age-standardized DALYs and age-standardized mortality would continue to decline after 2023. Conclusion Currently, China continues to carry a substantial epilepsy burden. Despite decreases in age-standardized DALYs and age-standardized mortality rates since 1990, the sheer population size reinforces the need for precision medicine and focused monitoring of priority groups.