From Vulnerability to Violence: The Intersection of Social Vulnerability and School Shootings

School shooting incidents have increased markedly in recent years. The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), composed of 15 social factors across 4 themes, identifies communities at risk for adverse outcomes from crises. This study aimed to assess the association between SVI and school shootings across all U.S. counties.

County-level SVI data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were merged with school shooting data (2000-2022) from the Center for Homeland Defense and Security, restricting the study period to years for which SVI data are available. Incidents were reported per 100,000 persons aged ≤19 using population estimates from the American Community Survey. Negative binomial regression analyses were performed to examine associations between school shootings, overall SVI, its themes, and individual social factors. Sensitivity analyses were performed to control for county urbanicity and victim age.

A total of 1,379 school shooting incidents involving 1,827 victims were analyzed. Most victims and shooters were male (77% and 95%, respectively), and the most common race was Black. Among victims, 26% sustained fatal and 74% non-fatal injuries. Half of all incidents occurred in only 2.3% of U.S. counties, which had a higher median SVI than counties with no incidents (0.66 vs 0.48). Counties with the most incidents included Cook (46), Los Angeles (38), Montgomery, TX and Philadelphia (23 each), and DeKalb (21). On adjusted regression, higher SVI correlated with increased school shootings per 100,000 children (β = 0.07; 95% CI 0.04-0.10; p < .0001), an association that persisted after adjusting for county urbanicity and when restricted to incidents with a confirmed minor victim (<18 years). Themes significantly associated with shootings included socioeconomic status, household characteristics, minority status, and housing/transportation. Key social factors associated with shootings were poverty, unemployment, housing cost burden, single-parent households, minority status, multi-unit housing, and lack of vehicle access.

School shootings are geographically concentrated in highly vulnerable counties. Higher SVI scores are associated with increased school shooting incidence, independent of county size and urbanicity. Using SVI can help identify at-risk communities and guide targeted social and structural interventions to prevent future incidents.

Level III.