Long-term electricity load forecasting model based on multi-period and multi-scale analysis
Related Experiment Videos
Xiaolin Zhang1, Zhi Liu1, Chunyang Wang2
1School of Electronic Information Engineering, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun, Jilin, China.
Abstract:
Existing long-term power load forecasting models face significant challenges due to the complexity of non-stationary electricity data, inadequate information representation, and suboptimal prediction accuracy. To address these issues, this study introduces PowerNet, a novel forecasting framework based on a multi-period and multi-scale approach. PowerNet first employs Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to perform multi-period analysis, transforming one-dimensional time series data into two-dimensional (2D) tensors to capture latent periodic patterns. A multi-scale information representation module is then implemented using computer vision-inspired techniques, including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and non-local attention mechanisms to extract robust features from these tensors. Finally, a fully connected layer performs feature reconstruction, while residual connections facilitate multi-step load forecasting. PowerNet was evaluated against state-of-the-art models such as Informer, LogTrans, and ETSformer across two public electricity datasets and one weather dataset. At prediction horizons of 96, 192, 336, and 720 time steps, experimental results demonstrate that PowerNet achieves competitive or superior accuracy on the evaluated datasets. Notably, compared with Autoformer, PowerNet reduces the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 18.77% to 37.41% and the Mean Square Error (MSE) by 18.23% to 47.74%, significantly enhancing the reliability of long-term electricity load forecasting.
Related Concept Videos
Multimachine Stability
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
Simplified Synchronous Machine Model
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
Load-frequency control
Maximum Power Flow and Line Loadability
The Power Flow Problem and Solution
Power in a Three-Phase Circuit