The longitudinal interplay among L2 writing self-efficacy, self-regulated writing strategies, and writing performance: a three-wave cross-lagged panel study of Chinese EFL learners

Writing in a second language (L2) is a complex cognitive activity that demands sustained self-regulation and a strong sense of personal capability. Although cross-sectional studies have linked writing self-efficacy, self-regulated writing strategies, and writing performance, the directional and reciprocal nature of these relationships remains insufficiently understood. This three-wave longitudinal study examined the temporal dynamics among L2 writing self-efficacy (L2WSE), self-regulated writing strategies (SRWS), and writing performance (WP) over one academic semester. A total of 368 Chinese EFL learners (Mage = 19.2 years, SD = 1.1; 62.2% female) from a public university in central China completed self-report measures of L2WSE and SRWS at three time points (Week 1, Week 8, and Week 16) and produced a timed writing task at each wave. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the three-factor measurement model, and tests of measurement invariance confirmed configural, metric, and scalar invariance across waves. A cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) revealed that (a) L2WSE prospectively predicted SRWS from T1 to T2 (β = 0.21, p < 0.001) and from T2 to T3 (β = 0.19, p < 0.01), (b) SRWS prospectively predicted WP from T1 to T2 (β = 0.16, p < 0.01) and from T2 to T3 (β = 0.18, p < 0.01), and (c) WP prospectively predicted L2WSE from T1 to T2 (β = 0.17, p < 0.01) and from T2 to T3 (β = 0.15, p < 0.05). A random-intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) sensitivity analysis yielded directionally consistent within-person effects, with slightly attenuated standardized coefficients. The findings suggest a temporally ordered, sequential chain in which self-efficacy beliefs prospectively predict greater strategic engagement, which in turn predicts higher subsequent writing outcomes, while successful writing experiences predict higher subsequent self-efficacy. These model-implied longitudinal associations extend Bandura's social cognitive theory to L2 writing contexts and highlight the pedagogical importance of nurturing both motivational beliefs and strategic competence in EFL writing instruction, although the observational design precludes causal conclusions.