Wheat yield sensitivity to compound hot-dry-windy events is increasing in China

Compound hot-dry-windy events (HDWs) increasingly threaten wheat production, but temporal changes in wheat sensitivity remain unclear. Here we combined multidecadal county-level yield records, hourly reanalysis climate data, phenological observations and production-cost records to quantify responses to three HDW types across China. High-temperature, low-humidity events increased by 0.7 hours per decade and were associated with the largest yield losses, reducing county-level yield by up to 7.6% at approximately 10 hours of exposure. County-level yield sensitivity also became increasingly negative during 1981-2018, with estimated changes of -31.5 kg ha^-1 h^-1 to -15.6 kg ha^-1 h^-1, particularly during the middle and late reproductive stages. Within the XGBoost models, changes in HDW occurrence were the most influential predictors of sensitivity trends, and field-trial analyses showed consistent temporal patterns. These findings reveal increasing wheat vulnerability to compound atmospheric stress and highlight a growing adaptation gap to intensifying HDWs in China.