Mapping cerebellar morphology in 15q11.2 CNV carriers using normative modeling

Copy number variations (CNVs) at the 15q11.2 locus of the human genome have been associated with altered brain structure and increased risk for neurodevelopmental and neuropsychiatric disorders. The cerebellum is increasingly seen as a crucial brain region for neurodevelopmental conditions, yet the effects of 15q11.2 CNVs on cerebellar morphology remain largely unclear. Importantly, 15q11.2 CNVs shows reduced or incomplete penetrance (meaning that not all CNV carriers are affected) and variable expressivity (meaning that symptoms may differ between individuals with the same genetic alteration). Thus, there is a need to not only assess group differences, but also to quantify anatomical variability at the individual level. Here, we address these issues using normative models of brain anatomy trained on large datasets (n > 52k, age range: 3-85) to assess both group and individual-level deviations in cerebellar anatomy in carriers of 15q11.2 deletions (n = 120, mean [SD] age = 64.95 [7.58]) and duplications (n = 149, mean [SD] age = 64.31 [7.21]), compared to non-carriers (n = 19,028, mean [SD] age = 64.31 [7.58]). Group-level case-control analyses revealed significantly smaller total and regional cerebellar volumes in both deletion and duplication carriers, though with small effect sizes. Individual-level deviation analyses, capturing pronounced alterations in specific individuals, revealed a heterogeneous pattern among carriers. Overall, our findings suggest that CNVs at the 15q11.2 locus exert modest and highly individualized effects on cerebellar morphology.