[Asbestos and numbers]

This paper proposes estimates of the quantities of asbestos cement (AC) materials present in Italy and in each region at the time of the ban in 1992, with an updating to 2023. It also proposes an evaluation of the time needed to complete the remediation of AC in Italy. The following information sources were used to calculate the estimates:l Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat); l the estimates of the quantities of AC in Italy made by the Italian National Research Council (CNR); l annual reports by the Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) on the quantities of AC classified with the former CER code 17.06.05 removed annually since 2008 for each region; l annual reports required by Article 9 of Law 257/92 for Tuscany and Lazio (1994-2011).In 2012, during the second National Government Conference, analyzing the annual reports required by art. 9 available to the authors with reliable data for only two regions (Tuscany and Lazio), it was estimated that the removal of AC was proceeding at an annual rate of 1% of the national total present in 1992. The ISPRA reports state that in Italy, between 2007 and 2022, approximately 327,000 t of AC were removed per year and; in particular, in 2014, the total quantity of AC removed in Italy was 314,916 t. In this work, the value of 314,916, assumed to correspond to the quantity estimated with the removal of 1%, was multiplied by 100 to estimate the total quantity of AC in the whole country which, in 1994, was 31.5 million t approximately, a figure close to that estimated by the CNR (32 million t). These data allow to estimate the total quantity of AC not yet removed in Italy corresponding to 22 million t by 2023. Assuming an average quantity of approximately 300 thousand t removed annually, the phase-out of asbestos could be expected towards the end of the current century. In fact, ISPRA data for 2008-2022 suggest that, after 2014, because of both the suspension of government financial incentives and the increase in disposal costs, the rate of removals slowed significantly. It was not possible to make the same estimates for the remediation of asbestos containing materials (ACM) other than AC.For example, with regard to friable materials, in the absence of estimates of the quantities existing in the country at the time of the ban, it is currently not possible to assess the trend and annual quantity of removals already carried out.