Cognitive speed and subsequent intellectual development: a longitudinal investigation

The hypothesis that a measure of intellectual speed assessed at one point in time would predict intellectual achievement at a later point in time was evaluated with a time-lagged cross-correlational analysis, an application of causal modeling techniques. Longitudinal data for 32 males and females, tested in 1944 (mean age 19.5 years) and in 1972 (mean age 46.7 years), supported the hypothesized relationships with an associated p less than .01. The Relations Factor of the Army Alpha Examination--consisting of scores from a highly speeded simple analogies test and a short-term memory test--administered at age 20 was highly predictive of both verbal and numerical ability in middle age. The results highlight the cognitive intellectual aspect of the speed of behavior. In addition, these findings supplement Hunt's studies of the relationships between speed of cognitive processing and psychometric abilities in young adults, and emphasize the importance of cognitive speed for subsequent intellectual development. Implications for the intellectual speed hypothesis of Birren and the utilization of time-lag designs in longitudinal research are discussed.