A study of optimum population levels--a progress report

The purpose of this study is to explore different approaches and to develop a methodology that will allow a calculation of "optimum levels of population." The discussion is specialized to the United States, but the methodology should be broad enough to handle other countries, including less-developed countries. The study is based on economics, but with major inputs from the areas of technology, natural resources management, environmental effects, and demography. The general approach will be to develop an index for quality of life (IQL or Q-index) and to maximize this index as a function of level and distribution of population. The technique consists of a reshuffling of national income accounts so as to be able to go from the Gross National Product (GNP) to the index for quality of life, plus a careful discussion of what is and what is not to be included. The initial part of the study consists of a projection of the index for quality of life as population level increases and as population distribution changes, under the assumption of various technologies, particularly as these relate to the consumption of minerals, energy, and other natural resources. One would expect that as economic growth continues, an increasing fraction of expenditures would be for the diseconomics produced by population growth and economic growth. This study should be useful by providing a rational base for governmental policies regarding population, both in the United States and abroad. Another application of the study is to technology assessment, by measurement of the impact on economic well-being through the introduction of new technologies. Therefore, one can gauge the necessary and desirable investments in certain new technologies. In general, mathematical models resulting from this study can become useful diagnostic tools to analyze the consequences of various public and private policy decisions.