A study of optimum population levels--a progress report.

Area of Science:

• Interdisciplinary study integrating economics, technology, natural resources management, environmental science, and demography.

Background:

• Existing economic measures like Gross National Product (GNP) do not fully capture societal well-being.
• Population growth and economic development create externalities that impact quality of life.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a methodology for calculating "optimum levels of population."
• To create an Index for Quality of Life (IQL or Q-index) to guide population and technology policies.

Main Methods:

• Reshuffling national income accounts to derive the Q-index from GNP.
• Projecting the Q-index based on population levels, distribution, and technological assumptions.
• Analyzing resource consumption (minerals, energy) and environmental impacts.

Main Results:

• The study provides a framework for quantifying the relationship between population dynamics and quality of life.
• It highlights how economic growth can lead to increased costs associated with negative externalities.
• The methodology allows for the assessment of new technologies' impact on economic well-being.

Conclusions:

• The developed methodology offers a rational basis for governmental population policies in developed and developing countries.
• It serves as a tool for technology assessment, evaluating the economic impact of innovations.
• Mathematical models can diagnose consequences of public and private policy decisions.