Related Experiment Video
Updated: Aug 8, 2026

Experimental Methodology for Estimation of Local Heat Fluxes and Burning Rates in Steady Laminar Boundary Layer Diffusion Flames
Published on: June 1, 2016
Comparison of methods of predicting burn mortality
Abstract:
Recent suggestions that patients "hopelessly burned" be permitted to die peacefully have refocused attention on the accuracy of different methods of predicting whether an individual burn patient will survive. The purpose of this presentation is to compare the accuracy of mortality predictions based upon four different statistical methods: (1) Baux's rule which adds the patient's age in years to the percentage of his body surface area burned--the original assertion was that values over 75 meant a very poor prognosis. (2) probit analysis, (3) discriminant analysis, and (4) logistic risk function analysis. Each of these methods was applied to data for over three thousand consecutive admissions to St. Mary's Hospital Burn Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. This data base and the four statistical models are described. Mortality predictions derived from the four models are compared, and some observations are made concerning the selection of an appropriate model for predicting burn mortality.
Related Concept Videos
Burn Injuries
The damage results in the death of skin cells, which can lead to a massive loss of fluid. Dehydration, electrolyte imbalance, and renal and circulatory failure follow, which can be fatal. Burn patients are treated with intravenous fluids to offset...
Actuarial Approach
Consider the example of a high-risk surgical procedure with significant early-stage mortality. A two-year clinical study is conducted,...
Kaplan-Meier Approach
Comparing the Survival Analysis of Two or More Groups
The Mantel-Cox Log-Rank Test
Cancer Survival Analysis

