[Early prognosis of acute pancreatitis (author's transl)]

One hundred patients with acute pancreatitis are studied. The results in 90 cases were "favorable or very favorable", in ten cases "unfavorable or death". Various different characterisitics were analyzed statistically in relationship to the two types of outcome: sex, clinical histories, and results of physical examination. Furthermore, the individual relationships between age, main initial analytic parameters, and later development were determined. In our experience neither age nor sex, considered individually, showed a significant relationship to the seriousness of the disease. Having had pancreatitis previously proved to be a favorable factor (p less than 0.005). None of the other factors in the case histories showed any bearing of the later course of the condition. Findings in physical examination which were signs of unfavorable prognosis included jaundice (p less than 0.001), low blood pressure (p less than 0.001), tachycardia (p less than 0.005), intestinal paresia (p less than 0.001), pain following decompression (p less than 0.025), and abdominal tenderness (p less than 0.05). Abnormalities in ECG (p less than 0.005), marked leukocytosis (p less than 0.0005), hyperglycemia (p less than 0.02), hypocalcemia (p less than 0.05), and high values for the coefficient of amilase/creatinine clearance (p less than 0.01) also suggested an unfavorable course.