Do intentions predict fertility? The experience in Taiwan, 1967-74

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Reproductive Health
• Sociology

Background:

• Fertility decline and contraceptive use increased in Taiwan between 1967-1974.
• Understanding the predictability of reproductive intentions is crucial for population studies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the utility of survey responses on the desire for additional children in predicting future fertility.
• To examine the relationship between reproductive intentions, contraceptive use, and actual fertility outcomes.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of survey data from Taiwan (1967-1974).
• Statistical examination of the correlation between stated desires for more children and subsequent fertility behavior.

Main Results:

• Reproductive intentions and contraceptive use were strong predictors of future fertility.
• The desire for more children was the primary driver of contraceptive adoption.
• Higher aggregate consistency between attitudes and behavior was observed compared to US surveys.

Conclusions:

• Survey questions about the desire for additional children are valuable for predicting future fertility.
• Reproductive intentions play a significant role in shaping fertility trends.
• Further research is recommended to validate these findings in diverse global settings.