Forecasting health manpower requirements: the case of thoracic surgeons

This paper presents projections of the future demand for thoracic surgery. Estimates of the future supplies of thoracic surgeons are constructed based on three alternative annual Board-certification rates. The consequences of varying supplies of thoracic surgeons, for a given level of expected demand, are presented in terms of expected work-load levels. Since it is costly to society if there are too few thoracic surgeons and since it is an obvious waste of resources if there are too many, no single estimate for an optimal annual increase in the number of thoracic surgeons is suggested. Important inadequacies of data for both forecasting demand and determining work loads are noted.