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Countercyclical U.S. fertility and its implications.

W P Butz, M P Ward

    Social Security Bulletin
    |August 1, 1979
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study analyzes U.S. fertility rates since 1947 using an economic model to predict future population trends and age distributions. Findings inform policy on population dynamics and economic planning.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Economics
    • Sociology

    Background:

    • Fertility rates in the United States have undergone significant changes.
    • Understanding these shifts is crucial for predicting future population size and age structures.
    • Post-World War II data provide a comprehensive basis for analyzing fertility trends.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To examine changing fertility rates in the U.S. since 1947.
    • To utilize an economic model to explain and predict fertility rate variations.
    • To evaluate explanations for fertility changes and their predictive power.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of U.S. demographic data from 1947 onwards.
    • Application of an economic model to fertility behavior.
    • Evaluation of various hypotheses explaining fertility rate fluctuations.

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    Main Results:

    • Observed differences in fertility rates among couples are explained by the economic model.
    • The model provides predictions for future fertility trends.
    • The study assesses the efficacy of different factors in driving fertility changes.

    Conclusions:

    • The economic model offers insights into the determinants of fertility rates.
    • Understanding past trends is essential for forecasting future population characteristics.
    • Policy implications for population size and age distribution are discussed.