Countercyclical U.S. fertility and its implications

The following article is the verbatim text of a report based on research funded by the Social Security Administration and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development to the Rand Corporation. The report looks at changing fertility rates in the United States and their implications for future population size and age distributions. An economic model of fertility rate is used to explain observed differences in fertility rates amond couples and to predict future rates. The focus is on trends since 1947 because post-World War II data are the most complete. Several explanations for changing fertility rates are examined, and their usefulness in predicting the future is evaluated.