A mathematical model of common-cold epidemics on Tristan da Cunha

Records of seven common-cold outbreaks on the island of Tristan da Cunha are compared with the corresponding time courses given by the mathematical model of Kermack & McKendrick (1927) and with an alternative model that directly involves a constant average duration of individual infection. Using computer simulation techniques the latter model is shown to be preferred and is then closely matched to the field data to obtain values for the model parameters. Consideration is then given to the intensity of epidemics predicted by the model and to the distribution of the actual epidemics relative to the theoretical epidemic threshold.