Pediatrics manpower requirements

Assessment and projection of manpower requirements are difficult and compelx undertakings for which no single methodology has proven to be entirely satisfactory. A frequently used approach to estimation of manpower requirements is the number of physicians needed per population. A numerical approach alone is inadequate for it fails to take into account the types and quality of services to be delivered. There are many factors which affect manpower estimates, several of which are not quantifiable. Factors unique to pediatrics which must be considered include the changing nature of health needs of the population in the age range from 0 to 21 years; the changes in the practice of pediatrics; the increasing emphasis on the importance of preventive health care and health maintenance; and the impact of scientific advances on the demand for services. A most important variable is the national level of cohort fertility. Fluctuations in this rate significantly affect the numbers of children and adolescents requiring care. It is concluded that there will not be an excess of pediatricians in 1980 and 1990. Indeed, it is questionable whether the health needs of the pediatric population can be adequately met in those years.