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Pediatrics manpower requirements.

R D Burnett, M K Willian, R W Olmsted

    Pediatrics
    |March 1, 1978
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    Estimating physician needs is complex. Projections indicate a shortage of pediatricians in 1980 and 1990, questioning if pediatric population health needs can be met.

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    Area of Science:

    • Health Services Research
    • Pediatric Workforce Analysis

    Background:

    • Manpower requirement assessment is challenging, with no single satisfactory methodology.
    • Physician-to-population ratios are common but insufficient for accurate estimation.
    • Estimates must consider service type, quality, and non-quantifiable factors.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To project pediatric manpower requirements.
    • To identify key factors influencing pediatric workforce needs.
    • To assess the adequacy of future pediatrician supply.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of factors affecting pediatric manpower.
    • Consideration of demographic variables like cohort fertility.
    • Evaluation of trends in pediatric practice and healthcare demands.

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    Main Results:

    • A simple numerical approach is inadequate for manpower estimation.
    • Pediatric-specific factors include evolving health needs, practice changes, preventive care emphasis, and scientific advances.
    • Cohort fertility significantly impacts the pediatric population size.

    Conclusions:

    • No excess of pediatricians is projected for 1980 and 1990.
    • Concerns exist regarding the ability to meet the healthcare needs of the pediatric population.
    • Accurate manpower projection requires multifaceted analysis beyond simple ratios.