Secular trends of annual morbidities of animal infectious diseases

Supposing two mathematical models, additive and multiplicative, the authors estimated the secular trends of annual morbidities (1949 approximately 1975) of twelve infectious diseases of domestic animals. For each diseases ten different trend curves were fitted. It was found that five regression equations, namely, those for bovine trichomoniasis, bovine tuberculosis, equine infectious anemia, pullorum disease in chickens, and foulbrood, gave the coefficient of determination of 97.9, 92.7, 91.0, 93.5, and 85.2%, respectively. Four of them were multiplicative, and the remaining one for equine infectious anemia was additive. From the viewpoint of practical utility, there was little doubt that even these secular trends might be used for predicting the relevant morbidities with fairly good preciseness.