Prediction and selective prophylaxis of venous thrombosis in elective gastrointestinal surgery

Clinical features were noted and routine and non-routine laboratory variables were measured before elective major gastrointestinal surgery in 63 patients aged 40 years or more. Deep-vein thrombosis (DVT), detected by routine 125I-fibrinogen leg scanning, developed in 21 patients. Five clinical variables but no laboratory variables were significantly associated with DVT: age; percent mean weight for age, sex, and height (%MW); presence of varicose veins; cigarette-smoking; and sex. The most useful discriminant index of these variables was age in years plus 1.3 x %MW. The index was validated prospectively in a further 41 patients, in 18 of whom DVT developed. The value of the index in selective prophylaxis was then assessed in a further 40 patients, of whom 24 (60%) with high-risk index received low-dose heparin (5000 units twice daily). DVT developed in 4 of the 40 patients, an incidence of 10% compared with the incidence of 37.5% (39 of 104) in the earlier studies with no prophylaxis.