The use of simulation modelling in the management of brucellosis eradication

Problems faced by Government veterinarians in the planning and implemention of the national bovine brucellosis eradication campaign are described. These problems stem from the uncertainty associated with the epidemiology of the disease and its initial status in eradication areas. They are compounded by contraints on abattoir capacity, finance and time. A computer stimulation model is discussed which is designed to assist campaign organisers to cope with these problems. Inputs related to expected test and slaughter rates, district disease prevalence and proposed campaign intensity are entered into the model. Output from the model inlcudes distributions giving predicted testing workloads, cattle slaughtered and disease status over the course of the campaign. The operation of the model is illustrated using data from the Bangalow district of New South Wales.