Prognosis in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with regard to the electrocardiogram

A long-term prognostic study of 128 patients with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (initial value for Forced Expiratory Volume in one second, [FEV1] less than or equal to 1,000 ml) with regard to electrocardiographic and lung function parameters as obtained at the entry visit is reported. Many initial ECG-variables and lung function parameters were significantly different between survivors and non-survivors after five years. We used a discriminant analysis to determine which factors actually provided independent information for detection of those subjects with a survival less than five years. In a discriminant analysis of the initial 25 ECG-variables only P-amplitude in lead II and S-amplitude in lead V6 were predictors of five-year survival (diagnostic accuracy 66.1%). In a discriminant analysis in which initial lung function variables were also considered next to the ECG-variables, the best prediction of five-year survival was made by P-amplitude in lead II, increase of FEV1 after thiazinamium i.m., and residual volume as percentage of total lung capacity [RV/TLC, %] (diagnostic accuracy 73.2%).