Prediction of chronicity in acute low back pain

Forty-eight patients seeking treatment for low back pain were assessed in the acute stage to see if they exhibited characteristics that would predict response to medical treatment. It was hoped that, if there were personality and demographic differences between patients who did and those who did not respond to standard medical treatment, potential chronic pain patients could be identified and targeted for special treatment. Stepwise discriminant analysis yielded a prediction equation that correctly identified 41 of the 48 cases (85.4%). Acute patients who became chronic complained of pain over a wider area of the body; had deeper, more central pain; were highly anxious; and had a lower activity level. Although cross-validation studies are needed, identification of potentially chronic pain patients may be feasible, making appropriate early intervention possible.