Computer simulation of Gumboro disease outbreak. IV. Epizootics obtained by mode G-4 with flock size, age and...

For the computer simulation of Gumboro disease outbreak by Model G-4 a program was written in FORTRAN. Of over twenty parameters involved in the model, the following three were used as input variables: (1) age of chickens at housing a1 (= 1 and 21); (2) size of flock at housing, N(a1) (= 100 and 1,000); and (3) geometric mean of the level of parentally conferred immunity at hatching, G(1) (= 0, 2, 8, and 32). The outputs were the graphic images demonstrating the chronological changes in a flock of innate resistance, parentally conferred immunity, and their sum, and the epizootic patterns composed of numbers of chickens at subclinical stage, clinically diseased, recovered, condemned, etc. at each age. As a result, stronger epizootics were produced at a lower level of parentally conferred immunity, and a higher age and a larger size of flocks. It was suggested that the subclinical stage might not be understood as an inapparent infection, and that a further postulate on the infection might be necessary to be introduced into this model to increase the practical utility, as well as the theoretical soundness, of this series of studies.