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Related Experiment Videos

The clinician's illusion.

P Cohen, J Cohen

    Archives of General Psychiatry
    |December 1, 1984
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    Clinicians may misinterpret disease prognosis due to sampling bias, overrepresenting long-term cases. This "clinician's illusion" affects understanding of diseases like schizophrenia and addiction.

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    Area of Science:

    • Psychiatry
    • Epidemiology
    • Biostatistics

    Background:

    • Disagreement exists regarding the long-term prognosis of diseases such as schizophrenia, alcoholism, and opiate addiction.
    • This disagreement may stem from differences in the patient populations sampled by clinicians and researchers.
    • Clinicians sample prevalent cases, while researchers often sample incident cases.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To explain the
    • clinician's illusion
    • a sampling bias affecting clinical and research samples.
    • To detail the statistical mechanism and consequences of this bias.
    • To suggest remedies for sampling bias in clinical and research settings.

    Main Methods:

    • Illustrating the statistical mechanism of sampling bias.

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  • Detailing the consequences of biased sampling.
  • Describing other sources of sampling bias.

    • Main Results:

    • Prevalence samples are biased toward long-duration cases, as case probability is proportional to duration.
    • This bias can lead to a skewed perception of disease prognosis.
    • Other sampling biases in clinical and research settings were identified.

    Conclusions:

    • The clinician's illusion, a bias toward long-duration cases in prevalence samples, contributes to disagreements in disease prognosis.
    • Understanding and addressing sampling biases are crucial for accurate clinical and research interpretations.
    • Remedies for sampling bias can improve the reliability of findings in psychiatric and addiction research.