Nonsurgical ovum transfer as a treatment for intractable infertility: what effectiveness can we realistically expect?

Using previously reported human, primate, and cattle reproductive performance data, we developed a mathematical model to predict the cumulative probability of pregnancy per woman per month theoretically obtainable by ovum transfer. We then conducted a preliminary ovum transfer clinical trial and compared the results of that trial to the results predicted by the model. Based on the nine spontaneously ovulating fertile donors and seven spontaneously ovulating infertile recipients available for the trial, the model predicted occurrence of between 0.63 and 8.65 pregnancies during the 6-month period of the study. We actually obtained two pregnancies. The model further predicted, with sufficient numbers of donors to produce one match per ovulation for each prospective patient, that the probability of that patient becoming pregnant from ovum transfer ranges from 0.05 to 0.35 per cycle.