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Estimating alcoholic prevalence.

C J Furst

    Recent Developments in Alcoholism : an Official Publication of the American Medical Society on Alcoholism, the Research Society on Alcoholism, and the National Council on Alcoholism
    |January 1, 1983
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Estimating alcoholism prevalence is challenging without a standard method. Per capita alcohol consumption data offers the most practical and valid figures for assessing treatment needs and monitoring alcohol problems over time.

    Area of Science:

    • Public Health
    • Epidemiology
    • Substance Abuse Research

    Background:

    • The Jellinek formula, a historical standard for estimating alcoholism prevalence, is now considered invalid.
    • There is a lack of a universally accepted method for accurately determining the prevalence of alcoholism and alcohol-related issues.
    • Existing estimation methods vary in their definitions of alcoholic populations and their suitability for different applications.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To review and evaluate alternative methods for estimating the prevalence of alcoholism and alcohol problems.
    • To identify the most useful and valid approach for practical applications like treatment needs assessment and problem monitoring.

    Main Methods:

    • Review and critical evaluation of existing prevalence estimation techniques.

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  • Analysis of methods utilizing alcohol mortality data, consumption data, general population surveys, and treatment client data.
  • Assessment of the utility of different methods for specific practical applications.

    • Main Results:

    • No single, standard method has replaced the invalid Jellinek formula for alcoholism prevalence estimation.
    • Currently viable methods include those based on mortality, consumption, surveys, and treatment data, each with inherent definitional differences.
    • Projections derived from per capita alcohol consumption data are identified as the most useful and valid for practical applications.

    Conclusions:

    • The choice of prevalence estimation method depends on the specific goals of the estimation.
    • For practical purposes such as estimating treatment needs and monitoring alcohol problems, per capita consumption projections are recommended.
    • A single prevalence figure may not fully represent the complex nature of societal alcohol problems.