A need-based model to project national dental expenditures.

Area of Science:

• Health Economics
• Dental Public Health
• Health Services Research

Background:

• Assessing national dental treatment needs is crucial for healthcare planning.
• The Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (HANES) provides valuable data for such assessments.
• Understanding projected expenditures is vital for policy development in dental care.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a national model for dental treatment needs.
• To estimate the financial expenditures required for a national dental program.
• To compare model-based projections with existing dental care system trends and demand-based estimates.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the HANES survey to establish a national model for dental treatment needs.
• Categorized dental services into five components based on type and age.
• Projected annual expenditures from 1980 to 1984 for these components and individual services.

Main Results:

• Projected total dental expenditures to increase from $18.98 billion in 1980 to $26.42 billion in 1984.
• Identified significant discrepancies between model-based need projections and current dental care system trends for specific services, particularly prevention and periodontal disease treatment.
• Found that demand-based projections for services like crowns exceeded need-based projections by a three-fold margin.

Conclusions:

• The national model provides a framework for understanding dental treatment needs and associated costs.
• Significant differences exist between projected needs and current market demands for specific dental services.
• Policy decisions regarding national dental programs should consider these discrepancies to ensure efficient resource allocation.