A simple method for estimating the contraceptive prevalence required to reach a fertility target

This report describes and applies a procedure for estimating the increase in contraceptive prevalence that would have to occur to achieve specified future reductions in a population's fertility. This target-setting methodology is based on a previously developed analytic model for the relationship between fertility and its proximate determinants. The basic aggregate version of the estimation procedure, which is described in detail, requires relatively few input data, but it allows changes in the mix of contraceptive methods in future years. In extended versions of the model, age specificity and adjustments for given trends in the proximate determinants other than contraceptive use are introduced.