Predicting the outcome of hospitalization for elderly persons: home versus nursing home

Fifty elderly persons who had been admitted to an acute care hospital from home and discharged to nursing homes were compared with 50 elderly persons who had been admitted to the same hospital from home and discharged to home during the same period. Discriminant function analyses were done to predict discharge status from patient characteristics at the time of admission as well as later in the hospital stay. Discharge status was predicted correctly for 88% of men and 75% of women, using patient characteristics available at the time of admission. When certain characteristics available later in the hospital stay were added, prediction improved to 98% for men and 86% for women.