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Economics and extended longevity: a case study.

G B Gori, B J Richter, W K Yu

    Preventive Medicine
    |July 1, 1984
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Preventive medicine increases life expectancy, shifting mortality to chronic diseases. This study examines the economic impacts of prevention programs, showing reduced healthcare costs but increased pension expenses.

    Area of Science:

    • Public Health
    • Health Economics
    • Demography

    Background:

    • Advances in preventive and therapeutic medicine have increased US life expectancy over 70 years.
    • Mortality causes have shifted from acute to chronic diseases, influenced by genetics, lifestyle, environment, and aging.
    • Further longevity increases are anticipated from chronic disease prevention, impacting demographic and economic projections.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze the probable demographic and economic consequences of a limited prevention program.
    • To assess the impact of prevention on population size, living standards, and economic factors.
    • To provide a case study within the Ford Motor Company context, using actual data and projections to the year 2000.

    Main Methods:

    • The study employed a restricted example, focusing on a specific company (Ford Motor Company).

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  • It utilized actual experience and specific expectations up to the year 2000 for analysis.
  • The methodology involved projecting demographic and economic outcomes of prevention initiatives.

    • Main Results:

    • Prevention programs were found to reduce expenditures on life insurance, disability, and healthcare.
    • Conversely, prevention initiatives led to increased costs associated with extending pension plans.
    • The study projected a potential increase in population size due to longevity advances.

    Conclusions:

    • Chronic disease prevention is crucial for increasing longevity and societal well-being.
    • Increased longevity necessitates production advances to maintain or improve living standards.
    • Society must develop appropriate social and economic policies to manage the effects of extended lifespans and prevention programs.