Economics and extended longevity: a case study

Preventive and therapeutic advances have brought life expectancy in the United States to well over 70 years and have shifted mortality causes from acute to chronic diseases, the determinants of which are genetics, lifestyle, the environment, and aging itself. Plausible approaches to chronic disease prevention are likely to increase longevity further, with some foreseeable effects on demographic and economic projections. Primarily, longevity advances would swell forecasts of population size, and would thus have to be met by production advances in order to maintain or improve living standards. This study, a restricted example, considers the probable demographic and economic consequences of a limited prevention program in the context of the Ford Motor Company, based on actual experience and certain expectations up to the year 2000. According to the results, prevention would reduce outlays for life insurance, disability, and health care, but would also generate the higher costs of extending pension plans. Undoubtedly, prevention will continue to be highly ranked in society's pursuit of happiness, and society must prepare to meet its effects with appropriate social and economic policies.