[Cost and financing of health services for the aged in the 80s]

Using the micro-simulation method an estimate is made of the costs of six facilities for the elderly in 1991. The estimate is based on three factors: the use of facilities, the price of facilities and the income of the elderly. The latter is important because some of the facilities are income-tested. Changes in the income position of the elderly affect the contribution of the public sector in total expenses and the contribution of the users of the facilities. The income of the elderly is also an important prerequisite for a policy for the aged which is aimed at shifting the care for the elderly from within institutions to facilities outside institutions and to self-help. Three different versions have been calculated: a basic version, assuming a constant level of provision of facilities; a trend version extrapolating past trends in the use of facilities, and a policy version, assuming that the shift of care from within institutions to facilities outside institutions and self-help will be realised in 1991. According to the basic version expenses for the six facilities in 1991 will amount to 4,7 milliard guilders more than in 1981. Compared with the outcome of the basic variant, the trend version shows a reduction of expenses in 1991 of 150 million guilders, and according to the policy version 1,1 milliard lower.