Prediction of weights in humans after overfeeding using the Payne-Dugdale model

Payne & Dugdale (1977) have proposed a model for predicting body weight in humans when the individual lean : fat tissue deposition ratio, energy intake +/- s.d. and energy expenditure +/- s.d. are known. The model was tested in 8 individuals, whose actual weights, energy intakes and expenditures (with their standard deviations) for a normal period, a semi-starvation period and an overfeeding period of 2 weeks were known or estimated. With the model, the lean : fat tissue deposition ratio for each person was calculated from the data of the semi-starvation period. From this ratio the model was able to predict a body weight equal to the one observed for the normal period. For the overeating period, the model predicted body weights which were considerably higher than the ones observed. Some explanations for this phenomenon are discussed.