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Related Experiment Videos

Estimating physician requirements for neurology: a needs-based approach.

L P Garrison, M A Bowman, E B Perrin

    Neurology
    |September 1, 1984
    PubMed
    Summary

    Physician needs in neurology for 1990 were estimated using a needs-based model. Initial estimates suggested a shortage, but adjustments indicated a near balance between neurologist supply and demand.

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    Area of Science:

    • Medical Economics
    • Health Workforce Planning
    • Neurology

    Background:

    • Accurate physician workforce planning is crucial for healthcare systems.
    • Previous models, like the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) needs-based model, have been used to forecast physician requirements.
    • Understanding the projected supply and demand for neurologists is essential for future medical education and practice planning.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To estimate the physician requirements in neurology for the year 1990.
    • To compare estimated needs with projected supply to identify potential shortages or surpluses.
    • To explore the impact of different assumptions regarding the role of neurologists on workforce requirements.

    Main Methods:

    • Application of the adjusted needs-based model developed by GMENAC.

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Utilizing a Delphi panel of physician experts to estimate treatment patterns for 56 neurologic conditions.
  • Review and adjustment of Delphi panel estimates by an advisory panel of former GMENAC members for internal consistency and inter-specialty compatibility.

    • Main Results:

    • Initial Delphi panel estimates indicated a need for 14,500 neurologists in 1990, suggesting a shortage.
    • Adjustments by the advisory panel reduced the estimated requirement to 8,400 neurologists.
    • The adjusted figure of 8,400 neurologists was in near balance with the projected supply of 8,650.

    Conclusions:

    • The estimated need for neurologists in 1990 was sensitive to assumptions about their role (consultant vs. principal care provider).
    • Divergent views on the neurologist's role influenced the significant difference between initial and adjusted workforce requirement estimates.
    • The study highlights the importance of clearly defining professional roles in physician workforce modeling.