A twenty-twenty vision: alternative futures for hospital pharmacy

The future of hospital pharmacy is examined in light of major societal and health-care trends. Trends that will affect the future of health care in the United States are discussed. These include technological developments in medical diagnosis and treatment, changing attitudes toward self-help, the changing nature of illness, the increasing proportion of the population that is elderly, new drug and biomedical developments, and an emphasis on ambulatory care. Two contemporary physician authors predict the demise of physicians in the next 40-50 years, replacing them with medics who will work as assistants to specialized automated devices. Assuming this prediction holds, the need for a health-care team will be eliminated since all health professionals except licensed practical nurses will be unnecessary. The clinical functions of institutional pharmacists will be automated or performed by medics, except for the research function. The nonclinical functions of pharmacists will be automated or performed by technicians. Since the next 5-20 years are shaped by decisions made now, hospital pharmacists must plan for the future by determining what their role should be 20-50 years from now and then by committing their creative energies to planning for that role.