Application of deterministic epidemic theory to nasal carriage of Staphylococcus aureus

Nasal carriage of antibiotic-resistant Staphylococcus aureus is often used as an index of cross-infection in hospitals. In this paper, a deterministic model of the epidemiology of Staphylococcal nasal carriage was derived employing the concepts of epidemic theory. This theoretical model was tested against experimental data gathered from a large survey. When the association between nasal carriage of tetracycline-resistant Staphylococci and length of stay in hospital derived from the survey was compared with theoretical figures derived from the model, the validity of the model in a real situation was confirmed.