Natural history of thyroid function in diabetics with impaired thyroid reserve: a four year controlled study

An attempt was made to compare the natural history of thyroid function in 80 diabetics having raised serum TSH concentrations (median 8.9 mU/l, range 5.8-46.3 mU/l) but serum T4 concentrations within the normal range (Group 1), and in 59 diabetics having normal serum TSH (median 1.9 mU/l, range 0.8-4.7 mU/l) and T4 concentrations (Group 2). Thyroid microsomal antibodies were present initially in 65% of patients in Group 1 and 15% of patients in Group 2. By 1981, 59 patients (74%) in Group 1 and 47 patients (80%) in Group 2 had been followed for a mean +/- SD duration of 4.2 +/- 1.8 and 4.2 +/- 1.5 years, respectively. Hypothyroidism developed in 9 patients in Group 1, but none from Group 2. Of patients in Group 1, hypothyroidism developed at a rate of 5% per annum in those with thyroid microsomal antibodies, but only 1% per annum in those without antibodies. Therefore, the risk of development of hypothyroidism is greatest in diabetics having both elevated serum TSH concentrations and thyroid microsomal antibodies and such patients should have regular review of thyroid function. Either risk factor alone appears to be a poor predictor of development of hypothyroidism.