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[Seasonal variations and trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in Naples, 1974-1978]
Insights
Cardiovascular disease deaths in Naples show a seasonal pattern, peaking in winter. While overall cardiovascular and ischemic heart disease trends remained stable, acute ischemic heart disease deaths increased from 1974-1978.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Time Series Analysis
Context:
- Analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality in Naples, Italy, between 1974 and 1978.
- Utilizes death certificate data categorized by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), VIII Revision.
- Examines three cause-of-death groups: all cardiovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, and acute ischemic heart diseases.
Purpose:
- To investigate the seasonal patterns and secular trends in cardiovascular disease mortality.
- To analyze time series data for distinct cardiovascular disease categories.
- To identify temporal variations in mortality rates over a five-year period.
Summary:
- A distinct seasonal pattern in cardiovascular disease deaths was observed, with peaks during colder months and troughs in summer.
- Time series analysis revealed stable secular trends for overall cardiovascular diseases and ischemic heart diseases.
- A notable increase in deaths attributed to acute ischemic heart diseases was evident throughout the study period (1974-1978).
Impact:
- Highlights the influence of seasonality on cardiovascular disease mortality, suggesting potential public health interventions.
- Provides insights into the changing epidemiology of ischemic heart disease, particularly acute forms.
- Informs future research and public health strategies for managing cardiovascular disease burdens.
Abstract:
Death certificates of people who died from cardiovascular diseases in the City of Naples from 1974 through 1978 were reviewed. Data were classified according to three different groups of causes of death: 1. from all cardiovascular diseases (codes of the International Classification of Diseases-ICD-, VIII Revision from 393.0 through 458.9), 2. from ischaemic heart diseases (ICD from 410.0 through 411.9) and 3. from acute ischaemic heart diseases (ICD from 410.0 through 411.9). The monthly number of deaths in each group was analyzed using time series techniques to assess the seasonal pattern and the secular trend. A clear seasonal pattern was found in all groups, though in group 3 it was less evident. The maximum number of deaths per month was found to occur during the cold season and the minimum during the summer. The secular trend was found to be stable for groups 1 and 2. Group 3 showed an evident increase over the five years under study.