Predicting alcoholism manpower needs

In response to the needs both to develop new, nonduplicative alcoholism services and to contain cost, and in order to plan for the labor-intensive alcoholism treatment system, planning techniques are needed to assist in the rational planning for and allocation of manpower. Using data from the 1980 National Drug and Alcoholism Treatment Utilization Survey, it is possible to analyze the staffing patterns of various modalities of alcoholism treatment. Two regression equations were developed to identify key variables for predicting manpower needs in various facilities. Budget, service type, and treatment capacity were statistically significant predictions of direct-care FTE staff in inpatient/residential units. The best predictive ability for direct-care FTE staff in detoxification and longer-term residential facilities was obtained with a general regression model which was based on all types of services (e.g., detoxification, longer-term residential, and outpatient). For outpatient settings, however, direct-care FTE staff was best predicted by considering budgets and treatment capacities within outpatient settings only. Based on this study, a planner can predict, with reasonable confidence, FTE direct-care staff by varying the values of the independent variables in the regression equation to reflect the various characteristics of the services being planned.