Clinical and angiographic factors associated with progression of coronary artery disease

To characterize the clinical and angiographic factors associated with progression of coronary atherosclerosis, 313 consecutive medically treated patients who had had two coronary arteriograms 3 to 119 months (mean 39 +/- 25) apart were studied. One hundred eighty-one patients underwent recatheterization for stable angina, 52 for unstable angina and 80 for various other reasons. In addition to the conventional angiographic features present at the first angiographic study (number of diseased vessels 1.5 +/- 0.8, ejection fraction 59 +/- 11%), an extent score was defined based on the number of coronary segments with 5 to 75% narrowings from a 15 segment coding system. Multivariate logistic regression identified four independent predictors of progression of coronary artery disease: the interval between studies (p less than 0.0001), unstable angina (p less than 0.0001), a high extent score (p = 0.0001) and young age (p = 0.0026). In a subset of 74 patients aged 50 years or younger with, at the time of the first evaluation, an extent score of 4 or more, the probability of progression between 2 and 4 years and after 4 years was, respectively, 80 and 90% compared with 50% for the other patients. Risk stratification for progression of coronary artery disease can thus be obtained.