Prediction of survival in adults with acquired Bi- or pancytopenia

In a retrospective study of 44 adults with acquired bi- or pancytopenia without evidence of any causal disorder, the survival curve suggested the existence of a subgroup of short survivors, mainly with aplastic anaemia, with death within 4 months. The initial values of 14 single clinical, blood and bone marrow variables were significantly associated with survival less than 4 months. Stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses identified 2 combinations of variables displaying significant simultaneous associations with short survival: (i) increased % of non-myeloid bone marrow cells and haemorrhagic manifestations initially; (ii) increased % of non-myeloid marrow cells, circulating erythroblasts and no history of any drug exposure. The predictive capacities of a resulting estimate of the probability of short survival and of previously introduced prognostic indices were approximately equal. The frequency of a correct prediction of a survival shorter than 4 months was in the range of 0.71-0.78 and that of longer survival in the range of 0.74-0.94.