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The reliability of dangerousness assessments. A decision making exercise
The British Journal of Psychiatry : the Journal of Mental Science
|February 1, 1984
Summary
Assessing dangerousness in individuals showed low rater agreement across professions and countries. This study questions the scientific validity of using
Area of Science:
- Forensic Psychology
- Psychiatric Assessment
- Clinical Criminology
Background:
- The concept of 'dangerousness' is frequently used in legal and clinical settings.
- Accurate assessment of dangerousness is crucial for patient management and public safety.
- Previous research indicates variability in predicting future dangerous behavior.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the inter-rater reliability in assessing the dangerousness of individuals.
- To compare dangerousness ratings between psychiatrists and non-psychiatrists.
- To determine the scientific and operational validity of the concept of dangerousness.
Main Methods:
- 193 raters from six countries and diverse professional backgrounds participated.
- Raters assessed 16 case histories, rating the degree of 'dangerousness'.
- Optimal management strategies were also recommended by raters.
Main Results:
- Inter-rater agreement on dangerousness was generally low, reaching 60% for only 4 out of 16 cases.
- Psychiatrists did not achieve higher agreement than non-psychiatrists.
- Psychiatrists tended to rate individuals as more dangerous compared to non-psychiatrists.
Conclusions:
- The concept of 'dangerousness' lacks sufficient scientific and operational validity for reliable assessment.
- Low inter-rater reliability challenges the consistent application of dangerousness evaluations.
- Further research is needed to develop more objective and reliable methods for risk assessment.