Prediction of outcome in schizophrenia

Prediction of 5-8 year outcome from presenting symptoms and background data was attempted in a sample of 110 first-admitted schizophrenics. Correlations between outcome criteria and single predictors as well as factor analytically derived clusters of predictors were studied. A rather consistent pattern of symptom variables as well as personality and social variables was found to be predictive of outcome. 'Atypical' symptoms were associated with good prognosis while longitudinal variables indicative of 'high-risk personality', or duration and severity of illness, were related to bad prognosis. Overt psychotic symptoms usually gave no correlations with outcome. A discriminant analytical approach was also used to predict outcome from combinations of predictor variables. When all variables were used to predict a combined outcome score, a high accuracy was achieved.