Actuarial status of the OASI and DI Trust Funds

This article summarizes the current financial and actuarial status of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program. The results presented are from the 1984 Trustees Report and are similar to the results in the 1983 report. This year's estimates show that the Social Security Amendments of 1983 restored the financial soundness of the OASDI program. According to the actuarial estimates, benefits can be paid on time throughout the 1980's and for many years thereafter. Because trust fund levels are projected to be relatively low through 1987, however, the program could again experience financial difficulties in the near future if economic conditions become worse than anticipated under the pessimistic (Alternative III) assumptions. After 1987, the program's ability to withstand economic downturns is projected to improve. On the basis of intermediate (Alternative II-B) assumptions, the OASDI program is in long-range close actuarial balance. This actuarial balance reflects substantial year-by-year surpluses during the first half of the 75-year projection period that are slightly out-weighed by substantial deficits later on.