[Critical notes on risk calculations in mammography (author's transl)]

Since 1971 a Mammography Screening Study was carried out in Hamburg. This project shows that mammography is the only method to detect a high percentage of minimal breast cancer. The chance to cure these patients (10-years-survival) then is 80% and more. With mean literature values for parenchym dose, incidence rate and induction period the risk of cancer induction by mammography as a function of age was calculated. It is shown that benefit exceeds risk not only for women over 50 years of age. Even for younger women the use of mammography seems justified, if longer inspection periods from 2 to 5 years are considered.