[Mathematical models in epidemiological analysis. II. Typhoid fever: time series analysis (author's transl)]

In this paper the systematic analysis of oro-faecal infectious diseases is continued. In order to propose a dynamic model for the evolution of the endemic typhoid fever, we have studied the behaviour of the number of cases of this disease in the town of Bari (Italy) during the years 1955-1978, by the methods of time series analysis. The analysis has pointed out the typical seasonal character of such a disease, and in particular the presence of a main winter cycle followed by a less evident summer cycle. The stochastic model which has been identified on the basis of the data from 1964 to 1978 allows a forecast for the years after 1978.